Boxleiter Sales Estimator
Estimate sales from review count · Carless NB-number method
Total reviews on store page
Blended avg, ~15-25% typical
When the game launched
Affects review behavior
Valve's 30% revenue share
~10% for refunds + VAT/GST
Estimated Sales (Range) ?Boxleiter estimates have wide confidence intervals. Low/high are +/-40% around the mid estimate, matching Carless's middle-80% range and Game Oracle's 0.5x-1.5x convention.
Low estimate
Mid estimate
High estimate
Effective multiplier
Effective avg price $
Multiplier Breakdown ?How the effective multiplier is built up. Each adjustment is multiplied together and applied to the base NB number. Use this to audit which factors are driving the estimate.
Base NB number
× Era adjustment
× Price tier
× Positivity
× Genre
Effective multiplier
Gross Revenue Range
Low
Mid
High
Net Revenue Range ?After Steam cut and refunds/tax. This is the estimated payout to the developer/publisher. Net = gross x (1 - steam cut % - refunds/tax %).
Low
Mid
High
Mid Gross Revenue units × $ avg
Mid Net RevenueAfter % deductions · range: -
About this method: Based on Simon Carless's "NB-number" research (GameDiscoverCo, 2024) — the modern successor to Tom Boxleiter's original 2014 multiplier. Reviews are the most reliable public signal of Steam sales, but estimates have wide confidence intervals (Carless's data shows the middle 80% spans 25x-100x). Gamalytic, VG Insights, and Sensor Tower use similar methods (often combined with proprietary data) and self-report ~70-77% of estimates within +/-30%. Always treat results as a range, not a point estimate.